Two incursions in Matari space in a row last week, none in Caldari or Gallente space for at least the last fortnight or so, maybe a month, but they keep pounding away on the Amarr like a drunk husband.
Okay, there are more constellations in Amarr space than in the other empires, so if they're picking their targets at random there's a statistically higher probability that it'll be an Incursion into the Empire, but still, the number of constellations under the Imperial banner don't outweigh the number of constellations with somebody else's flag on the border checkpoints.
But the number of Incursions is drastically lopsided. I can think of three occasions at least where there were three or more Incursions in highsec, and all of them were targeting the Amarrians. Once, happenstance. Twice, coincidence.
Three times... well, I guess by default ANY Incursion is "enemy action". Why is the enemy so focused on that one target though? bigger population? pre-existing slavery culture might make for more docile subjects to True Enslave?
The fact that the Holy Amarrian Imperial Navy are the least capable at rapid-response and tactical flexibility? They're not renowned for their subtlety after all. Could just be a strategic failure in the Navy that the Sansha are exploiting.
But all things considered, I don't think it's safe to just write off the frequency of Amarr-space Incursions to that. Any angle of investigation should be pursued, see where it leads us. Because if the Amarrians aren't renowned for their subtlety, Sansha manages to turn subtlety into a blunt instrument.